Mission Briefing
- 1The Color Hierarchy
- 2The Complete Rarity Breakdown
- 3The Contraband Tier: M4A4 Howl
- 4Rarity vs. Value: They're Not the Same
RARITY PYRAMID
#The Color Hierarchy
The Contraband (Orange)
#The Complete Rarity Breakdown
Consumer Grade (Gray) & Industrial Grade (Light Blue)
Drop Mechanic: These are "map souvenir" drops. You get them for free by playing Casual/Competitive/Deathmatch.
Value: $0.03 - $1.00 Purpose: Trade-up contract fodder
Notable Exceptions:
- P250 Sand Dune - Meme skin, sells for $0.50-$2 with stickers
- SCAR-20 Storm - Popular budget skin
Trade-Up Strategy
Mil-Spec (Dark Blue)
Drop Rate: ~79.92% of case openings Value Range: $0.10 - $10 Investment Value: Low (oversupplied)
Most Traded Mil-Spec Skins:
| Weapon | Skin Name | Value | Why It's Relevant |
|---|
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate | $1.50 | Cheap playskin | | M4A1-S | Dark Water | $2.00 | Clean design | | Glock-18 | Water Elemental | $6.00 | Popular sidearm | | USP-S | Blueprint | $3.00 | CT starter |
Trade-Up Use: These are inputs for Restricted trade-ups.
Restricted (Purple)
Drop Rate: ~15.98% of case openings Value Range: $1 - $50 Investment Value: Moderate (good trade-up inputs)
Top Restricted Skins for Trading:
AK-47 Redline (Field-Tested) - $8-$12
- The most liquid skin in CS2
- Stable price, sells instantly
- Used as "currency" in high-value trades
AWP Redline (Field-Tested) - $8-$10
- Same logic as AK Redline
- Popular among AWPers
M4A4 Desolate Space (Field-Tested) - $10-$15
- Clean futuristic design
- High demand
Trade-Up Sweet Spot
Sticker Crafts
Classified (Pink)
Drop Rate: ~3.2% of case openings Value Range: $5 - $100 Investment Value: High (stable demand)
Elite Classified Skins:
AWP Wildfire (FT) - $8-$12 AK-47 Frontside Misty (FT) - $10-$15 M4A4 Buzz Kill (FT) - $8-$12 USP-S Kill Confirmed (FT) - $15-$25
Why Classified Matters:
- Too expensive for casual players to mass-unbox
- Cheap enough for serious players to buy for gameplay
- Sweet spot for liquidity
Covert (Red)
Drop Rate: ~0.64% of case openings (1 in 156 cases) Value Range: $20 - $500 Investment Value: Very High (iconic skins)
The "Big Three" Coverts:
AK-47 (Every Case Has One)
- Average value: $50-$150
- Most popular rifle in the game
- Always in demand
AWP (Most Cases Have One)
- Average value: $80-$300
- The sniper everyone wants
- Holds value long-term
M4A4 (Selected Cases)
- Average value: $30-$80
- Less popular than AK/AWP but still solid
Covert Investment Strategy
Coverts from new cases start expensive ($200+) and crash within 3 months. Wait for the crash.
Example: AWP Chromatic Aberration
- Week 1 (Case Launch): $350
- Month 1: $180
- Month 3: $90
- BUY ZONE: Month 3-6 at $80-$100
- Month 12+: Stabilizes at $120-$150
The 6-Month Rule
Rare Special Items (Gold / Yellow)
Drop Rate: ~0.26% of case openings (1 in 385 cases) Value Range: $60 - $15,000+ Investment Value: Extreme (luxury items)
The Gold Tier Hierarchy:
Tier 1: Vanilla Knives ($60-$150)
- No skin pattern, just the base knife
- Cheapest knives (e.g., Gut Knife, Falchion)
- Entry point for knife ownership
Tier 2: Common Patterns ($150-$500)
- Knives with common finishes (Rust Coat, Forest DDPAT, Boreal Forest)
- Still "a knife" but less desirable
Tier 3: Mid-Tier Skins ($500-$2,000)
- Dopplers (P1, P3)
- Fades (low %)
- Slaughters (no pattern)
- Autotronics
Tier 4: Premium Skins ($2,000-$5,000)
- Dopplers (P2, P4)
- High % Fades
- Slaughters (diamond)
- Crimson Web (low float)
Tier 5: Elites ($5,000-$15,000+)
- Karambit Doppler Sapphire
- M9 Bayonet Ruby
- Karambit Fade 100%
- Butterfly Doppler Sapphire
Gloves (Also Gold Tier)
Drop Math
#The Contraband Tier: M4A4 Howl
Story: In 2014, a community artist submitted the "Howl" design to Valve. It was added to the Huntsman Case. Later, it was discovered the artist had stolen the artwork from another creator. Valve removed the skin from the case and upgraded existing Howls to "Contraband" rarity.
Result: The Howl can never drop again. It's the rarest skin category in the game.
Current Value:
- Factory New: $7,000 - $15,000
- Minimal Wear: $4,000 - $7,000
- Field-Tested: $2,500 - $4,000
Investment Thesis:
- Fixed supply (only ~5,000 exist across all wear levels)
- Valve will never reproduce it (legal reasons)
- Price only goes up (2015: $200 → 2026: $7,000+)
Unlikely. The Howl situation was unique (copyright violation + legal threat). Valve learned their lesson and now verifies all community submissions rigorously. A new Contraband skin would require another major scandal.
#Rarity vs. Value: They're Not the Same
Myth: "Gold items are always worth more than Red items."
Reality: Rarity affects drop rate, but demand affects price.
Examples of "Rarity Inversion"
AWP Dragon Lore (Covert) = $5,000-$20,000 Gut Knife Rust Coat (Gold) = $80
AK-47 Fire Serpent (Covert) = $1,500-$3,000 Shadow Daggers Forest DDPAT (Gold) = $100
Why?
- Dragon Lore is iconic (used by pros, beautiful design)
- Gut Knife Rust Coat is ugly and small
- Rarity is ONE factor; desirability is everything
The Collector's Paradox
#Drop Rate Math: Expected Value of Unboxing
Case Opening Economics
Average CS2 Case:
- Cost: $2.50 (case) + $2.50 (key) = $5.00 per opening
Expected Value Breakdown:
| Rarity | Drop Rate | Avg. Value | EV Per Open |
|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | $0.50 | $0.40 | | Restricted | 15.98% | $3.00 | $0.48 | | Classified | 3.2% | $10.00 | $0.32 | | Covert | 0.64% | $100.00 | $0.64 | | Gold (Knife) | 0.26% | $500.00 | $1.30 | | TOTAL EV | 100% | - | $3.14 |
Conclusion: On average, you lose $1.86 per case opening ($5 cost - $3.14 return).
The Gambler's Fallacy: "If I open 385 cases, I'm guaranteed a knife!"
Reality: You have a 63% chance to get at least ONE knife. But you'll spend $1,925 to get a knife worth (on average) $500. Net loss: -$1,425.
Gambling Psychology: The thrill of the potential $10,000 Karambit Doppler Sapphire makes people ignore the math. Case opening is entertainment, not investment. If you want profit, BUY skins directly, don't gamble.
#StatTrak™: The Value Multiplier
StatTrak™ is a special attribute that counts your kills. It's an independent variable from rarity.
Drop Rate: ~10% of all case drops have StatTrak™
StatTrak™ Value Multipliers
| Item Type | Non-ST Price | ST Price | Multiplier |
|---|
| Mil-Spec | $0.50 | $1.00 | 2x | | Restricted | $5.00 | $12.00 | 2.4x | | Classified | $15.00 | $40.00 | 2.7x | | Covert | $100.00 | $300.00 | 3x | | Knives/Gloves | $500.00 | $800.00 | 1.6x |
Why Knives Have Lower Multiplier: Knives don't show kill counts in-game (no HUD display). StatTrak™ on knives is less valuable than on rifles.
StatTrak™ Liquidity
#Souvenir Skins: The Tournament Exclusive
Drop Mechanic: Souvenir skins drop during major tournaments. They have special gold stickers from the match.
Rarity: Varies (can be Mil-Spec to Covert) Value Modifier: Usually -20% to +500% (depending on stickers)
Souvenir Value Factors
Standard Souvenir (Boring):
- Random match, random player
- Value: -20% vs non-souvenir
- Nobody cares
Legendary Souvenir (Expensive):
- Finals match
- Famous player (s1mple, ZywOo, NiKo)
- Iconic moment (clutch, ace)
- Value: +100% to +500%
Example:
- AWP Dragon Lore (Non-Souvenir): $10,000
- AWP Dragon Lore Souvenir (Random Match): $12,000
- AWP Dragon Lore Souvenir (s1mple Finals MVP): $80,000+
Major Watching Drops
Souvenir Collecting
#Rarity Changes Over Time
Valve occasionally adjusts skin rarities. This is rare but impactful.
Historical Rarity Changes
M4A4 Howl (2014)
- Original: Covert (Red)
- Changed to: Contraband (Orange)
- Reason: Copyright violation
- Price impact: +3,000%
USP-S Road Rash (2021)
- Original: Classified (Pink)
- Unchanged (but became rare due to discontinued case)
- Price: $5 → $30 (6x increase)
The Lesson: When a case is removed from the drop pool, all skins inside become "pseudo-rare" even if their official rarity doesn't change.
#Investment Guide by Rarity
Conservative Portfolio (Low Risk)
- 50% Covert Skins: AK-47, AWP, M4A4 (popular patterns)
- 30% Classified Skins: Liquid items (Redlines, Asiimovs)
- 20% Cases: Discontinued cases for long-term hold
Expected ROI: 30-60% over 2-3 years
Aggressive Portfolio (High Risk)
- 40% Gold Tier: Mid-range knives ($500-$2,000)
- 30% Contraband: M4A4 Howl (if you can afford it)
- 20% Rare Patterns: Case Hardened blue gems, Fire & Ice
- 10% Souvenirs: Finals MVP souvenirs
Expected ROI: 100-300% over 2-3 years (or total loss if market crashes)
#Frequently Asked Questions
No. If you own a Covert skin and Valve changes future drops to Classified, YOUR item stays Covert. Rarity is locked at the moment of unboxing.
Not by drop rate. Float is randomly assigned. However, DEMAND for FN is higher, which makes them more expensive (but not technically rarer).
StatTrak™ M4A4 Howl Factory New (0.00x float) - Only ~50 exist globally. Estimated value: $100,000+. Combines Contraband + StatTrak™ + FN + low float.
No. All cases use the same drop rate formula. However, OLDER cases have discontinued Covert skins that are now more valuable (e.g., Chroma Case's M4A1-S Hyper Beast).
No. Trade-up contracts only work within the color tiers (Blue → Purple → Pink → Red). You CANNOT trade up to Gold (knives/gloves). Gold items can only be unboxed.
#Final Thoughts: Rarity is Just the Beginning
Understanding rarity is the foundation, but it's not the full picture. To truly master CS2 economics, you need to understand:
- Rarity (what we covered here)
- Float values (wear and condition)
- Pattern indexes (Case Hardened, Fade %)
- Market psychology (what collectors want)
Ready to Trade Up?
Now that you understand rarity tiers, use our Trade-Up Calculator to find profitable contracts. Convert your Mil-Spec skins into Coverts with guaranteed profit margins.
Start Trading Up →
Last Updated: December 21, 2026. Rarity drop rates confirmed by Valve in 2024. Individual skin values fluctuate.