CS2 Trade Up Calculator: Complete Profit Guide (2026)
Mission Briefing
- 1What is a Trade Up Contract?
- 2Understanding Collection-Based Probability
- 3Float Value Mathematics
- 4The Float Cap Trap
📊 CALCULATE YOUR PROFIT
Mathematics vs. Gambling: Unlike case openings where the house always wins (negative Expected Value), trade up contracts allow you to achieve positive Expected Value through calculation and strategy. This is investing, not gambling.
#What is a Trade Up Contract?
A Trade Up Contract is Counter-Strike 2's skin upgrade mechanism. You exchange 10 skins of identical rarity for 1 skin of the next higher tier:
- 10 Consumer Grade (White) → 1 Industrial Grade (Light Blue)
- 10 Industrial Grade → 1 Mil-Spec (Blue)
- 10 Mil-Spec → 1 Restricted (Purple)
- 10 Restricted → 1 Classified (Pink)
- 10 Classified → 1 Covert (Red)
⚠️ Important Limitations:
- Cannot trade up Covert (Red) skins
- Cannot trade up Contraband items (M4A4 Howl)
- Cannot mix rarities (all 10 inputs must be same tier)
#Understanding Collection-Based Probability
This is where beginners lose money. The outcome is NOT random across all possible skins.
The Core Rule
Your output skin will come from the collections of your 10 input skins. Each collection has a different number of potential outcomes at the next rarity tier.
Real Example: The Dragon Lore Gambit
Let's say you want an AWP | Dragon Lore (Cobblestone Collection, Covert tier).
Scenario 1: Naive Approach
- Use 10 Classified skins from only the Cobblestone Collection
- Cobblestone has 3 possible Covert outcomes:
- AWP | Dragon Lore (~$7,000)
- M4A1-S | Knight (~$1,500)
- Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (~$30)
- Your odds: 1/3 = 33.3% chance for Dragon Lore
- Problem: Cobblestone skins are expensive because everyone tries this
Scenario 2: Collection Mixing
- Use 1 Classified from Cobblestone Collection ($50)
- Use 9 Classified from Cache Collection ($2 each = $18)
- Total Covert outcomes:
- Cobblestone: 3 outcomes (including Dragon Lore)
- Cache: 2 outcomes (cheap skins)
- Your odds: 1/5 = 20% chance for Dragon Lore
- Cost: $68 instead of $500+
- Risk/Reward: Lower probability but MUCH lower investment
Equal Distribution Myth
Weighted Probability
#Float Value Mathematics
The float value (wear condition) of your output is calculated using this formula:
Output Float = (Average Input Float × Output Range) + Output Min Float
Breaking Down the Formula
1. Average Input Float: Sum of all 10 input floats ÷ 10
2. Output Range: The float range the target skin can exist in
- Example: AWP | Asiimov can only be 0.18-1.00 (Range = 0.82)
- Example: AK-47 | Redline can be 0.00-0.80 (Range = 0.80)
3. Output Min Float: The minimum possible float for that skin
Real-World Example: Crafting a Factory New Skin
Goal: Get a Factory New (FN) M4A1-S | Printstream (0.00-0.07 range)
The Cheap Method:
- Target skin range: 0.00-0.70 (Range = 0.70, Min = 0.00)
- To guarantee FN:
(Avg Float × 0.70) + 0.00 ≤ 0.07 - Solve:
Avg Float ≤ 0.10
Strategy:
- Buy 9 cheap "filler" skins with 0.00-0.01 float (cost: ~$2-5 each)
- Buy 1 expensive target collection skin in Minimal Wear (~0.10 float)
- Average: (9×0.01 + 1×0.10) / 10 = 0.019
- Result: Factory New output despite using mostly cheap skins!
💎 The "Filler Skin" Strategy
#The Float Cap Trap
⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: Not all skins exist across the full 0.00-1.00 float range. Many have float caps that can destroy your trade up.
Common Float-Capped Skins
| Skin | Min Float | Max Float | Missing Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Asiimov | 0.18 | 1.00 | No FN or MW possible |
| AK-47 | Slate | 0.00 | 0.26 | No FT, WW, or BS |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space | 0.00 | 0.50 | No WW or BS |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed | 0.00 | 0.75 | No high-float BS |
The Disaster Scenario
You carefully craft a trade up using 10 Factory New (0.00) inputs, expecting a 0.00 output.
But your target is AWP | Asiimov...
❌ Result: You get a 0.18 Field-Tested Asiimov (the minimum possible) ❌ Loss: You paid for 10 FN skins but got the cheapest condition available
Always Verify Float Ranges
#Expected Value (EV) Calculation
Expected Value is the average profit/loss per trade up if you did it infinite times. Positive EV = Profitable strategy.
The Formula
EV = (Probability₁ × Value₁) + (Probability₂ × Value₂) + ... - Cost of Inputs
Real Example: Printstream Trade Up
Inputs: 10 Classified skins @ $8 each = $80 total
Possible Outputs:
- M4A1-S | Printstream FN (60% chance) = $150 value
- AUG | Momentum FN (20% chance) = $25 value
- SG 553 | Integrale FN (20% chance) = $15 value
EV Calculation:
EV = (0.60 × $150) + (0.20 × $25) + (0.20 × $15) - $80
EV = $90 + $5 + $3 - $80
EV = +$18
Interpretation: On average, you profit $18 per trade up (+22.5% ROI)
Variance vs. Expected Value
Even with positive EV, you can lose multiple times in a row (variance). Think of it like poker:
- Short term: Results vary wildly
- Long term: EV determines profit
Positive EV Trade
Negative EV Trade
#Step-by-Step Trade Up Execution
Phase 1: Research & Planning
1. Identify Target Skins
- Look for Covert/Classified skins with large price gaps between conditions
- Example: USP-S | Printstream (FN: $150, MW: $45)
2. Check Float Ranges
- Verify the skin can exist in your target condition
- Printstream: 0.00-0.60 range ✅ (FN is possible)
3. Calculate Required Float
Target: < 0.07 (Factory New)
Skin Range: 0.60
Required Average: 0.07 / 0.60 = 0.1166 max average float
4. Analyze Collections
- Map out all possible outcomes
- Calculate probability for each outcome
- Compute Expected Value
Phase 2: Buying Inputs
5. Place Buy Orders (Don't Market Buy)
On Steam Community Market:
- Never click "Buy Now" at market price
- Place Buy Orders 10-15% below market
- Wait 24-72 hours for sellers to accept
Need 9 filler skins with 0.00-0.01 float? Don't buy one at a time. Place 9 separate buy orders slightly above each other ($2.00, $2.01, $2.02...). This increases your chances of getting filled while staying below market price.
6. Third-Party Marketplaces
- CSFloat Market: Filter by exact float values
- Buff163: Often 20-30% cheaper than Steam (requires Chinese phone number)
- Skinport: Europe-focused, good liquidity
Phase 3: Verification
7. Triple-Check Before Executing
Create a checklist:
- [ ] All 10 skins are the same rarity
- [ ] Float values calculated correctly
- [ ] Target skin not float-capped
- [ ] Expected Value is positive
- [ ] Have Steam Guard Mobile Authenticator enabled (avoids 15-day trade hold)
8. Use Our Trade Up Calculator
Input your exact skins to see:
- Precise probability calculations
- Automatic float cap warnings
- Expected Value with current market prices
- Optimal filler skin recommendations
Phase 4: Execution
9. Execute the Contract
In-game:
- Open Inventory → Find any input skin
- Right-click → "Trade Up Contract"
- Add all 10 skins
- Review final float prediction
- Click "Sign Contract"
10. Wait 7 Days
New skins are trade-locked for 7 days. Use this time to:
- Research your next trade up
- Monitor market prices
- Calculate if immediate sell or hold is better
#Advanced Strategies
Strategy 1: The "10% Gamble"
Concept: Accept low probability (10%) for massive payout (10x investment)
Example:
- Cost: $50 in inputs (9 fillers @ $2, 1 target @ $32)
- Success Outcome: $500 skin (10% chance)
- Failure Outcome: $5 skin (90% chance)
EV: (0.10 × $500) + (0.90 × $5) - $50 = $50 + $4.50 - $50 = +$4.50
Risk Profile: High variance, positive EV. Need 20+ attempts to smooth variance.
Strategy 2: The "Safe Grind"
Concept: High probability (80%+) with consistent small profits
Example:
- Cost: $40 in inputs
- Primary Outcome: $48 skin (80% chance) = +$8 profit
- Secondary Outcome: $35 skin (20% chance) = -$5 loss
EV: (0.80 × $48) + (0.20 × $35) - $40 = +$5.40
Risk Profile: Low variance, steady income. Boring but reliable.
Strategy 3: The "Float Trap"
Concept: Exploit float-capped skins where others fail
Example: Blackiimov Hunting
- Target: AWP | Asiimov with 0.90+ float ("Blackiimov")
- Method: Use 10 Battle-Scarred inputs with 0.95+ float
- Outcome: Guaranteed high-float output
- Profit: Blackiimovs sell for 50-100% over normal BS price
Variance is normal. If your EV is positive, continue. Professional traders track ROI over 50+ trade ups, not individual results. Don't let one loss make you abandon a profitable strategy.
Market volatility increases during Majors. Pros: Increased liquidity (easier to sell outputs). Cons: Input prices may spike. Best practice: Buy inputs weeks before, execute during Major, sell into hype.
Yes! StatTrak inputs → StatTrak output. However, StatTrak trade ups are usually -EV because StatTrak skins are illiquid and overpriced. Only do StatTrak trade ups if the target has collector demand.
You can start with $20-30 doing cheap Industrial → Mil-Spec trade ups. Focus on learning the mechanics with low risk. Graduate to Restricted → Classified ($100-200 budget) once you understand probability.
#Common Mistakes to Avoid
❌ Assuming Equal Probability
Using 5 skins from Collection A and 5 from Collection B does NOT mean 50/50 odds. Count the total number of possible outcomes, not the number of input skins.
❌ Ignoring Float Caps
Always verify your target skin can exist in the condition you're trying to craft. A 0.00 average input means nothing if the skin is capped at 0.18.
❌ Market Buying Inputs
Clicking "Buy Now" wastes 10-20% of potential profit. Use buy orders and third-party markets. Patience is profit in trade ups.
❌ Chasing Losses
Losing 3 trade ups in a row doesn't mean you're "due" for a win. Variance is normal. Stick to positive EV strategies and accept short-term losses.
#Tools & Resources
Essential Tools
1. CS-PROFIT Trade Up Calculator ⭐
- Real-time market price integration
- Automatic EV calculation
- Float cap warnings
- Optimal filler recommendations
- Use Our Calculator →
2. CSFloat Database
- Float range verification
- Pattern index lookup
- Market listings with float filters
3. Steam Inventory Helper (Browser Extension)
- Quick float checking on Steam Market
- Price history graphs
- Bulk item management
Learning Resources
Trade Up Academy
Community Discord
#Case Study: The $5,000 Printstream Run
Trader Profile: Intermediate, $500 starting capital Timeframe: 3 months (March-May 2024) Strategy: M4A1-S | Printstream FN trade ups
The Setup
Target: M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)
- Market Price: $145
- Trade Up Cost: $85 (10 inputs @ $8.50 average)
- Probability: 57% (collection analysis)
- EV per Trade Up: +$18.50
Execution Log
| Attempt | Result | Float | Profit/Loss | Running Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ❌ AUG Momentum | 0.045 | -$60 | -$60 |
| 2 | ✅ Printstream | 0.023 | +$60 | $0 |
| 3 | ✅ Printstream | 0.018 | +$60 | +$60 |
| 4 | ❌ SG Integrale | 0.055 | -$70 | -$10 |
| 5 | ✅ Printstream | 0.031 | +$60 | +$50 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 45 | ✅ Printstream | 0.009 | +$75* | +$890 |
*0.009 float sold for premium ($160 vs $145 market)
Results After 45 Trade Ups
- Total Invested: $3,825
- Total Revenue: $4,715
- Net Profit: $890
- ROI: +23.3%
- Hit Rate: 60% (27 successes, 18 failures)
Key Takeaways
- Variance is Real: Lost on 18/45 attempts (40%) despite positive EV
- Patience Paid Off: Buy orders saved ~$340 over market prices
- Float Mattered: Ultra-low floats (< 0.01) sold for 10-15% premium
- Consistency Works: Positive EV always materializes over large samples
#Profitability Calculator
Use this quick reference to estimate if a trade up is worth attempting:
Minimum EV Threshold: +$5 per trade up (to account for market price changes and time investment)
Quick Calculation:
If (Expected Revenue - Input Cost) < $5:
→ Skip, not worth the risk
If (Expected Revenue - Input Cost) > $15:
→ Excellent opportunity, execute immediately
If (Expected Revenue - Input Cost) = $5-15:
→ Verify market liquidity and current prices before executing
#Summary: Your Action Plan
For Beginners (< $100 budget)
- Start with Industrial → Mil-Spec trade ups ($15-30 per attempt)
- Focus on learning probability calculations
- Practice using our calculator with fake scenarios
- Execute 5-10 cheap trade ups to understand variance
- Track every result in a spreadsheet
For Intermediate ($100-500 budget)
- Graduate to Restricted → Classified trade ups
- Learn float manipulation with filler skins
- Use third-party markets for 20-30% savings
- Master Expected Value calculations
- Aim for 15-20% ROI per trade up
For Advanced ($500+ budget)
- Focus on Classified → Covert high-value targets
- Exploit market inefficiencies during Operations/Majors
- Build a diversified portfolio of trade up strategies
- Consider StatTrak and rare pattern opportunities
- Track long-term ROI across 50+ trade ups
Ready to Calculate Your First Profitable Trade Up? Use our advanced trade up calculator to analyze any contract with real-time market data, automatic EV calculations, and float cap verification.
🎯 Start Your Profit Journey
Stop gambling on cases. Start calculating profitable trade ups with our advanced calculator.
Open Trade Up Calculator →
#Frequently Asked Questions
No. Many profitable trade ups exist in the $20-50 range. The key is finding positive EV opportunities, which exist at all budget levels. Start small to learn, then scale up.
With positive EV strategies, expect to see net profit after 20-30 trade ups. Individual results vary due to variance. Professional traders measure success over 50+ attempts, not individual outcomes.
Statistically equivalent if EV is the same. However, cheap trade ups let you learn faster with less risk. Many beginners prefer doing 10× $30 trade ups over 1× $300 trade up for this reason.
Yes, in the short term. Positive EV means you'll profit over many attempts, but variance causes temporary losses. This is why bankroll management is critical—never risk money you can't afford to lose.
Mathematically yes. Case openings have ~-65% EV (you lose 65 cents per dollar spent on average). Trade ups can achieve +10 to +30% EV with proper calculation. Trade ups are investing; cases are entertainment.
Remember: Trade ups are not "get rich quick" schemes. They're a systematic approach to growing your inventory through mathematics and market knowledge. Start small, track everything, and let Expected Value work its magic over time.
Not sure where to begin? Try our Trade Up Calculator with some practice scenarios before risking real money. Education prevents expensive mistakes.