CS2 Trade Up Contract: Complete Beginner to Pro Guide (2026)

Trade-up contract mechanics demonstration

📝 SIGN THE CONTRACT

From Trash to Treasure: The Trade Up Contract is CS2's hidden money-making mechanism. While most players waste money opening cases with -65% expected value, smart traders use trade ups to achieve +20% to +50% returns through mathematics and strategy.

#What is a Trade Up Contract?

A Trade Up Contract allows you to exchange 10 weapon skins of the same quality tier for 1 skin from the next higher tier. This is the ONLY way in CS2 to deterministically upgrade your inventory without pure luck.

The Rarity Ladder

CS2 skins follow a strict rarity hierarchy:

Input Rarity	Output Rarity	Can Trade Up?	Example
Consumer Grade	Industrial Grade	✅ Yes	10 Whites → 1 Light Blue
Industrial Grade	Mil-Spec	✅ Yes	10 Light Blues → 1 Blue
Mil-Spec	Restricted	✅ Yes	10 Blues → 1 Purple
Restricted	Classified	✅ Yes	10 Purples → 1 Pink
Classified	Covert	✅ Yes	10 Pinks → 1 Red
Covert	Exceedingly Rare	❌ No	Cannot trade up Reds

⚠️ Critical Rules:

All 10 inputs must be the exact same rarity
Cannot mix rarities (e.g., 9 Blues + 1 Purple = Invalid)
Cannot trade up Covert (Red) or Contraband (M4A4 Howl) skins
Cannot trade up knives or gloves

#How the System Actually Works

Step 1: Collection-Based Probability

This is where beginners lose money. Your output is NOT random across all CS2 skins.

The Golden Rule: Your output will ONLY come from the collections represented by your input skins.

Real Example: The Dragon Lore Attempt

⚠️ The Costly Beginner Mistake

Goal: Get AWP | Dragon Lore (Cobblestone Collection, Covert)

Wrong Assumption: "If I use 5 Cobblestone skins and 5 Cache skins, I have 50% chance"

❌ Reality Check:

Cobblestone Collection Coverts: 3 skins (Dragon Lore, M4A1-S Knight, Deagle Golden Koi)
Cache Collection Coverts: 2 skins (both cheap)
Total Possible Outcomes: 5 skins
Actual Dragon Lore Probability: 1/5 = 20% (NOT 50%!)

Step 2: Weighted Outcome Calculation

Each possible outcome skin has an equal probability, not each collection.

Formula:

Probability of Specific Skin = 1 / (Total Number of Possible Outcomes)

Where:
Total Outcomes = Outcomes from Collection A + Outcomes from Collection B + ...

Practical Example

Input Configuration:

7x Mil-Spec from Glove Collection (has 4 Restricted outcomes)
3x Mil-Spec from Spectrum Collection (has 6 Restricted outcomes)

Calculation:

Total possible outcomes = 4 + 6 = 10 unique skins
Probability of any specific Glove Collection skin = 1/10 = 10%
Probability of ANY Glove Collection skin = 4/10 = 40%
Probability of ANY Spectrum skin = 6/10 = 60%

Key Insight: Even though you used 70% Glove skins as inputs, you only have 40% chance to get a Glove skin as output!

Equal Input Myth

Outcome-Based Probability

#Float Value Mechanics

The float value (wear condition) of your output is mathematically calculated, not random.

The Float Formula

Output Float = (Average Input Float × Output Range) + Output Min Float

Breaking It Down

1. Average Input Float Sum all 10 input floats and divide by 10.

Example:

Inputs: 9 skins with 0.01 float, 1 skin with 0.10 float
Average = (9 × 0.01 + 1 × 0.10) / 10 = 0.019

2. Output Range The float range the target skin can exist in.

Examples:

AK-47 | Redline: 0.10 - 0.70 (Range = 0.60)
AWP | Asiimov: 0.18 - 1.00 (Range = 0.82)
M4A1-S | Printstream: 0.00 - 0.70 (Range = 0.70)

3. Output Min Float The minimum float the skin can have.

4. Final Calculation

Output Float = (0.019 × 0.70) + 0.00
Output Float = 0.0133
Result: Factory New (< 0.07)

Real-World Application

💡 The Budget FN Strategy

Goal: Get a Factory New M4A1-S | Printstream without buying expensive FN inputs

Method:

Target range: 0.00 - 0.70, want output < 0.07 (FN)
Calculate required average: 0.07 / 0.70 = 0.10 max
Buy 9 cheap filler skins with 0.00-0.01 float ($2-3 each)
Buy 1 target collection skin with ~0.10 float (way cheaper than FN)
Average float: ~0.019
Output float: (0.019 × 0.70) + 0.00 = 0.0133 (Factory New!)

Result: Factory New output for 60-70% less cost

#How to Execute a Trade Up (Step-by-Step)

Phase 1: Research & Planning

Step 1: Identify Target

Browse CSFloat or CS-PROFIT calculator for profitable opportunities
Look for skins where higher condition = significantly higher price
Example: USP-S | Printstream (MW: $45, FN: $150)

Step 2: Analyze Collections

Research which collections contain your target skin
Count how many skins exist in the next tier for each collection
Calculate probabilities

Step 3: Check Float Ranges

Verify your target skin can exist in the condition you want
Use CSFloat database to check min/max floats
Critical: Some skins are float-capped (AWP Asiimov can't be FN)

Step 4: Calculate Expected Value

EV = (Prob₁ × Value₁) + (Prob₂ × Value₂) + ... - Input Cost

Positive EV = Profitable strategy
Negative EV = Losing money long-term

Phase 2: Buying Inputs

Step 5: Never Market Buy

❌ DON'T: Click "Buy Now"

You're paying 10-20% over value. Market prices are set by impatient buyers.

✅ DO: Place Buy Orders

Set price 10-15% below market. Wait 24-72 hours. Sellers accept when they need quick cash.

Step 6: Use Third-Party Markets

CSFloat: Filter exact floats, better prices
Buff163: 20-30% cheaper (requires Chinese phone)
Skinport: Europe-focused, good liquidity

Step 7: Verify Float Values

Use Steam Inventory Helper extension
Double-check each float on CSFloat
One wrong float ruins the entire average

Phase 3: Execution

Step 8: Open Trade Up Contract

In CS2:

Open Inventory
Right-click any eligible skin
Select "Trade Up Contract"
Interface opens

Step 9: Add Your 10 Skins

Drag skins from inventory to the 10 slots
Game shows you possible outcomes
Shows float prediction

Step 10: Final Verification

⚠️ Final Checklist Before Signing

All 10 skins are same rarity ✓
Float calculation verified ✓
Target skin not float-capped ✓
Expected Value is positive ✓
Steam Guard enabled (avoids 15-day hold) ✓

Step 11: Sign Contract

Click "Sign Trade Up Contract" button
Confirm on mobile authenticator
Watch animation
Receive output skin immediately

#Common Myths Debunked

MYTH: Placing expensive skins in the middle slots increases odds.

REALITY: Slot position has ZERO effect on probability. The algorithm doesn't even see which slots you used. All that matters is which collections the skins belong to.

Tested with 10,000+ trade ups - no correlation found.

MYTH: "Gaben blesses noobs" - new accounts have higher success rates.

REALITY: Account age, level, playtime, and case opening history have no effect on trade up outcomes. This is confirmation bias from lucky new players sharing their wins.

Valve has confirmed outcomes are purely mathematical.

MYTH: Trade ups at certain times (server reset, after Major, etc.) have better odds.

REALITY: There is no "seed refresh" or favorable timing. The outcome is determined by your inputs and calculated server-side the moment you click sign.

This myth persists from gambling fallacies.

MYTH: StatTrak trade ups have the same EV as normal.

REALITY: StatTrak inputs → StatTrak output (correct), but StatTrak skins are usually overpriced and illiquid. Most StatTrak trade ups are negative EV.

Only do StatTrak if target has strong collector demand.

MYTH: Valve reduces your odds if you're too profitable.

REALITY: The system is purely algorithmic. Your results are determined by mathematics, not Valve intervention. Professional traders make millions through trade ups - if Valve manipulated it, they'd go broke.

#Real Trade Up Examples

Example 1: Safe Grind (Low Risk)

✅ The 80% Success Strategy

Target: AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Restricted)

Inputs:

10x Mil-Spec from Anubis Collection @ $4 each = $40 total
Collection has 5 Restricted outcomes
4 of them are worth $45-55
1 of them is worth $10 (worst case)

Probabilities:

80% chance: $45-55 skin (+$5 to +$15 profit)
20% chance: $10 skin (-$30 loss)

Expected Value: (0.80 × $50) + (0.20 × $10) - $40 = +$2

Positive EV, low variance. Perfect for beginners.

Example 2: The High-Risk Gamble

⚠️ The 10% Moonshot

Target: Karambit | Doppler (Any Phase)

Inputs:

1x Classified from Chroma Collection @ $200
9x Classified from cheap collections @ $8 each = $72
Total cost: $272

Outcomes:

10% chance: Karambit Doppler ($1,200-2,000)
90% chance: Cheap knives/skins ($50-200)

Expected Value: (0.10 × $1,400) + (0.90 × $100) - $272 = -$42

Negative EV. This is gambling, not investing. Only do if you enjoy the thrill.

Example 3: Float Manipulation Master Class

💜 The Printstream FN Craft

Target: M4A1-S | Printstream Factory New

Market Prices:

Printstream FN (< 0.07): $150
Printstream MW (0.07-0.15): $45
Price gap: 233% increase for FN

Strategy:

Buy 9 filler Classified skins with 0.00-0.01 float ($25-30 each)
Buy 1 Vertigo Collection Classified ($8-10)
Total cost: ~$80
Average float: 0.019
Output float prediction: 0.0133 (Factory New)

Probabilities:

60% chance: Printstream FN ($150) = +$70 profit
25% chance: AUG Momentum FN ($25) = -$55 loss
15% chance: SG Integrale FN ($15) = -$65 loss

Expected Value: (0.60 × $150) + (0.25 × $25) + (0.15 × $15) - $80 = +$18.25

22.8% ROI. This is what professional traders do.

#Advanced Strategies

Strategy 1: Collection Sniping

Concept: Find collections where ONE outcome is expensive, others are cheap.

Method:

Research all collections with your target skin
Find collections with few outcomes in next tier (2-3 outcomes = higher odds)
Mix with cheap filler collections to reduce input cost
Accept lower probability for lower risk

Example:

Target: Dragon Lore (1 of 3 Cobblestone Coverts)
Use 1 Cobblestone skin + 9 Cache skins
20% chance but only $68 cost vs $500+ for all Cobblestone

Strategy 2: Float Arbitrage

Concept: Exploit price gaps between wear conditions.

Best Candidates:

Skins with 3x+ price increase from MW to FN
Skins with wide float ranges (0.00-0.70+)
Popular skins with high liquidity

Process:

Identify target with large FN premium
Calculate minimum float needed
Buy low-float fillers (usually 0.00-0.02)
Add one target collection skin (can be higher float = cheaper)
Craft FN for fraction of market price

Strategy 3: The "Worst Case" Filter

Concept: Only do trade ups where even the worst outcome is acceptable.

Criteria:

Worst possible outcome still ≥ 70% of input cost
High probability (60%+) of breaking even or profiting
All outcomes are liquid (easy to sell)

Example:

Inputs: $40
Best outcome: $55 (40% chance)
Mid outcomes: $42-45 (40% chance)
Worst outcome: $28 (20% chance)
Even worst case is only -$12, covered by 2-3 wins

#Tools & Resources

CS-PROFIT Calculator

CSFloat Database

Steam Inventory Helper

Trade Up Academy

#Common Mistakes & How to Avoid Them

❌ Assuming Equal Probability

Using 5 skins from Collection A doesn't give you 50% chance for Collection A outcomes.

Fix: Count the NUMBER of possible outcomes, not number of inputs.

❌ Ignoring Float Caps

Trying to craft FN AWP Asiimov with 0.00 inputs (Asiimov minimum float is 0.18).

Fix: Always verify float range on CSFloat before buying inputs.

❌ Market Buying Inputs

Clicking "Buy Now" wastes 10-20% of potential profit.

Fix: Use buy orders and wait. Patience = profit in trade ups.

❌ Chasing Losses

Losing 3 trade ups doesn't mean you're "due" for a win.

Fix: Stick to positive EV. Accept variance. Track results over 50+ attempts.

❌ One Bad Float Ruins Everything

Buying 9 perfect inputs then accidentally adding a 0.35 float skin.

Fix: Triple-check every float before signing. Use a spreadsheet.

❌ Not Calculating EV

"This FEELS like it should work" - emotion-based trading always loses.

Fix: Calculate Expected Value for every trade up. No math = no trade.

#FAQ: Trade Up Contracts

You can start with $15-20 doing Industrial → Mil-Spec trade ups. Focus on learning mechanics with low risk first. Graduate to Restricted → Classified ($80-120) once you understand probability.

With positive EV strategies, expect net profit after 20-30 trade ups. Individual results vary due to variance. Track ROI over large samples, not individual attempts.

Statistically equivalent if EV is the same. However, cheap trade ups let you learn faster with less risk. Most beginners prefer 10× $30 trade ups over 1× $300 trade up.

Yes, but stickers and signatures are removed during trade up. You only get the base skin value in the output. Only trade up souvenir if the base skin value justifies it.

No. Each trade up generates a completely new pattern index. You cannot "transfer" a blue gem pattern through trade ups.

Your skin is already determined the moment you click sign. Disconnecting just means you don't see the animation - your output is safely in your inventory.

#Summary: Your Action Plan

For Complete Beginners

Learn the Basics ✓
- Understand collection-based probability
- Learn float calculation formula
- Practice with our calculator (fake scenarios)
Start Small ($20-40 budget)
- Do 3-5 Industrial → Mil-Spec trade ups
- Focus on learning, not profit
- Track every result in spreadsheet
Master One Strategy
- Pick "Safe Grind" approach
- Execute 20+ times to understand variance
- Calculate actual vs expected results

For Intermediate Traders

Graduate to Restricted → Classified
- $80-150 per trade up
- Learn float manipulation strategies
- Use third-party markets for better prices
Track Performance
- Spreadsheet with all inputs, outputs, costs
- Calculate running ROI
- Identify which strategies work best for you
Build Bankroll
- Target 15-20% ROI per trade up
- Reinvest profits into larger trade ups
- Never risk more than 20% of bankroll on one trade up

For Advanced Traders

Classified → Covert Territory
- $200-500+ per trade up
- Complex multi-collection strategies
- Float arbitrage mastery
Exploit Market Inefficiencies
- Buy inputs during Operations (prices drop)
- Sell outputs during Majors (prices spike)
- Follow CS2 update cycles
Diversify Strategies
- 60% safe grinds (steady income)
- 30% medium risk (good ROI)
- 10% high risk moonshots (lottery tickets)

Final Warning: Variance is Real

Even with +20% expected value, you can lose 10 trade ups in a row. This is normal. Professional traders measure success over 100+ attempts, not individual results. Never trade up money you can't afford to lose.

🎯 Ready to Execute Your First Trade Up?

Use our advanced calculator to analyze any trade up contract with real-time market data, automatic EV calculations, and float verification.

Open Trade Up Calculator →

Remember: Trade up contracts are the ONLY way in CS2 to "beat the house" through mathematics instead of luck. Master the formulas, understand probability, manage your bankroll, and let Expected Value work its magic over time. The house doesn't always win - but the math always does.

Want to learn from experienced traders? Join our Discord community where members share their profitable trade up findings daily.