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Free Horizon Case opening simulator: $4.19 open cost, $2.20 EV, -47.56% Unbox ROI, 69 drops across 4 rarities. Test odds, history and win rate without spending keys. Updated June 3, 2026. Research and entertainment only.
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Horizon Case
Simulate Horizon Case opens at $4.19 ($1.70 case + $2.49 key) without spending real money. Compare runs to $2.20 EV and -47.56% Unbox ROI from the Details tab.
The Horizon Case simulator rolls 69 outcomes across 4 rarities at $4.19 per open, tracking session win rate against $2.20 EV.
Sessions deviate from $2.20 EV and 6.86% profit chance — that variance is the point. Lucky sims do not prove $4.19 opens are +EV.
Hold Horizon Case at $1.70 with 0.00% Investing ROI on Details; simulate opens at -47.56% Unbox ROI here — different intents.
CSProfit models Horizon Case at $2.20 EV — faster than real opens, not a profit promise.
It rolls 69 Horizon Case drops using the same weights as Details, values each hit at current prices and charges $4.19 per simulated open against $2.20 EV.
★ Navaja Knife | Fade is 0.01% (about 1 in 20000). ★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel, ★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web, ★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web lead average value; common tiers dominate the 69-item pool across 4 rarities.
Yes — virtual opens use the $4.19 modeled cost ($1.70 + $2.49) without charging your Steam wallet.
Detail EV is $2.20 (-$1.99 vs $4.19 open). Individual sims often land below that because commons dominate 6.86% profit chance.
It uses CSProfit's 69-item probability table for Horizon Case (updated June 3, 2026). It models randomness but is not Valve's server-side roll.
Modeled exp. profit is -$1.99 on $4.19 opens with -47.56% Unbox ROI. Most single opens still return items worth less than cost.
Click Open Once ($4.19 modeled) or Quick Sim for bulk runs. Compare history to $2.20 EV and 6.86% win benchmark.
You can hit ★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel ($2,191.64 avg.) in sim, but 0.01% rare drops remain unlikely. Session wins ≠ -47.56% long-run ROI.
Run 50+ Quick Sims, chart rarity distribution and compare win rate to 6.86% and EV to $2.20 — one lucky streak is noise.
The web tool is free. Real Horizon Case opens still cost $4.19 (USD) on Steam if you choose to open for real.