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Free Operation Phoenix Weapon Case opening simulator: $6.22 open cost, $3.01 EV, -51.64% Unbox ROI, 78 drops across 4 rarities. Test odds, history and win rate without spending keys. Updated June 3, 2026. Research and entertainment only.
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Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
Simulate Operation Phoenix Weapon Case opens at $6.22 ($3.73 case + $2.49 key) without spending real money. Compare runs to $3.01 EV and -51.64% Unbox ROI from the Details tab.
The Operation Phoenix Weapon Case simulator rolls 78 outcomes across 4 rarities at $6.22 per open, tracking session win rate against $3.01 EV.
Sessions deviate from $3.01 EV and 5.75% profit chance — that variance is the point. Lucky sims do not prove $6.22 opens are +EV.
Hold Operation Phoenix Weapon Case at $3.73 with 0.00% Investing ROI on Details; simulate opens at -51.64% Unbox ROI here — different intents.
CSProfit models Operation Phoenix Weapon Case at $3.01 EV — faster than real opens, not a profit promise.
It rolls 78 Operation Phoenix Weapon Case drops using the same weights as Details, values each hit at current prices and charges $6.22 per simulated open against $3.01 EV.
★ Bayonet | Fade is 0.00% (about 1 in 25000). ★ Karambit | Crimson Web, ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web, ★ M9 Bayonet | Night lead average value; common tiers dominate the 78-item pool across 4 rarities.
Yes — virtual opens use the $6.22 modeled cost ($3.73 + $2.49) without charging your Steam wallet.
Detail EV is $3.01 (-$3.21 vs $6.22 open). Individual sims often land below that because commons dominate 5.75% profit chance.
It uses CSProfit's 78-item probability table for Operation Phoenix Weapon Case (updated June 3, 2026). It models randomness but is not Valve's server-side roll.
Modeled exp. profit is -$3.21 on $6.22 opens with -51.64% Unbox ROI. Most single opens still return items worth less than cost.
Click Open Once ($6.22 modeled) or Quick Sim for bulk runs. Compare history to $3.01 EV and 5.75% win benchmark.
You can hit ★ Karambit | Crimson Web ($4,561.00 avg.) in sim, but 0.00% rare drops remain unlikely. Session wins ≠ -51.64% long-run ROI.
Run 50+ Quick Sims, chart rarity distribution and compare win rate to 5.75% and EV to $3.01 — one lucky streak is noise.
The web tool is free. Real Operation Phoenix Weapon Case opens still cost $6.22 (USD) on Steam if you choose to open for real.