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Free Falchion Case opening simulator: $3.97 open cost, $2.13 EV, -46.41% Unbox ROI, 29 drops across 4 rarities. Test odds, history and win rate without spending keys. Updated June 3, 2026. Research and entertainment only.
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Falchion Case
Simulate Falchion Case opens at $3.97 ($1.48 case + $2.49 key) without spending real money. Compare runs to $2.13 EV and -46.41% Unbox ROI from the Details tab.
The Falchion Case simulator rolls 29 outcomes across 4 rarities at $3.97 per open, tracking session win rate against $2.13 EV.
Sessions deviate from $2.13 EV and 8.06% profit chance — that variance is the point. Lucky sims do not prove $3.97 opens are +EV.
Hold Falchion Case at $1.48 with 0.00% Investing ROI on Details; simulate opens at -46.41% Unbox ROI here — different intents.
CSProfit models Falchion Case at $2.13 EV — faster than real opens, not a profit promise.
It rolls 29 Falchion Case drops using the same weights as Details, values each hit at current prices and charges $3.97 per simulated open against $2.13 EV.
★ Falchion Knife | Fade is 0.02% (about 1 in 5000). ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web, ★ Falchion Knife | Night, ★ Falchion Knife | Fade lead average value; common tiers dominate the 29-item pool across 4 rarities.
Yes — virtual opens use the $3.97 modeled cost ($1.48 + $2.49) without charging your Steam wallet.
Detail EV is $2.13 (-$1.84 vs $3.97 open). Individual sims often land below that because commons dominate 8.06% profit chance.
It uses CSProfit's 29-item probability table for Falchion Case (updated June 3, 2026). It models randomness but is not Valve's server-side roll.
Modeled exp. profit is -$1.84 on $3.97 opens with -46.41% Unbox ROI. Most single opens still return items worth less than cost.
Click Open Once ($3.97 modeled) or Quick Sim for bulk runs. Compare history to $2.13 EV and 8.06% win benchmark.
You can hit ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web ($896.38 avg.) in sim, but 0.02% rare drops remain unlikely. Session wins ≠ -46.41% long-run ROI.
Run 50+ Quick Sims, chart rarity distribution and compare win rate to 8.06% and EV to $2.13 — one lucky streak is noise.
The web tool is free. Real Falchion Case opens still cost $3.97 (USD) on Steam if you choose to open for real.