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Free Operation Vanguard Weapon Case opening simulator: $7.35 open cost, $4.56 EV, -37.92% Unbox ROI, 79 drops across 4 rarities. Test odds, history and win rate without spending keys. Updated June 3, 2026. Research and entertainment only.
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Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Simulate Operation Vanguard Weapon Case opens at $7.35 ($4.86 case + $2.49 key) without spending real money. Compare runs to $4.56 EV and -37.92% Unbox ROI from the Details tab.
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case simulator rolls 79 outcomes across 4 rarities at $7.35 per open, tracking session win rate against $4.56 EV.
Sessions deviate from $4.56 EV and 8.45% profit chance — that variance is the point. Lucky sims do not prove $7.35 opens are +EV.
Hold Operation Vanguard Weapon Case at $4.86 with 0.00% Investing ROI on Details; simulate opens at -37.92% Unbox ROI here — different intents.
CSProfit models Operation Vanguard Weapon Case at $4.56 EV — faster than real opens, not a profit promise.
It rolls 79 Operation Vanguard Weapon Case drops using the same weights as Details, values each hit at current prices and charges $7.35 per simulated open against $4.56 EV.
★ Bayonet | Fade is 0.00% (about 1 in 25000). ★ Karambit | Crimson Web, ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web, ★ M9 Bayonet | Night lead average value; common tiers dominate the 79-item pool across 4 rarities.
Yes — virtual opens use the $7.35 modeled cost ($4.86 + $2.49) without charging your Steam wallet.
Detail EV is $4.56 (-$2.79 vs $7.35 open). Individual sims often land below that because commons dominate 8.45% profit chance.
It uses CSProfit's 79-item probability table for Operation Vanguard Weapon Case (updated June 3, 2026). It models randomness but is not Valve's server-side roll.
Modeled exp. profit is -$2.79 on $7.35 opens with -37.92% Unbox ROI. Most single opens still return items worth less than cost.
Click Open Once ($7.35 modeled) or Quick Sim for bulk runs. Compare history to $4.56 EV and 8.45% win benchmark.
You can hit ★ Karambit | Crimson Web ($4,561.00 avg.) in sim, but 0.00% rare drops remain unlikely. Session wins ≠ -37.92% long-run ROI.
Run 50+ Quick Sims, chart rarity distribution and compare win rate to 8.45% and EV to $4.56 — one lucky streak is noise.
The web tool is free. Real Operation Vanguard Weapon Case opens still cost $7.35 (USD) on Steam if you choose to open for real.