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Free Shadow Case opening simulator: $4.26 open cost, $2.59 EV, -39.30% Unbox ROI, 29 drops across 4 rarities. Test odds, history and win rate without spending keys. Updated June 3, 2026. Research and entertainment only.
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Shadow Case
Simulate Shadow Case opens at $4.26 ($1.77 case + $2.49 key) without spending real money. Compare runs to $2.59 EV and -39.30% Unbox ROI from the Details tab.
The Shadow Case simulator rolls 29 outcomes across 4 rarities at $4.26 per open, tracking session win rate against $2.59 EV.
Sessions deviate from $2.59 EV and 8.85% profit chance — that variance is the point. Lucky sims do not prove $4.26 opens are +EV.
Hold Shadow Case at $1.77 with 0.00% Investing ROI on Details; simulate opens at -39.30% Unbox ROI here — different intents.
CSProfit models Shadow Case at $2.59 EV — faster than real opens, not a profit promise.
It rolls 29 Shadow Case drops using the same weights as Details, values each hit at current prices and charges $4.26 per simulated open against $2.59 EV.
★ Shadow Daggers | Fade is 0.02% (about 1 in 5000). ★ Shadow Daggers | Night, ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade, USP-S | Kill Confirmed lead average value; common tiers dominate the 29-item pool across 4 rarities.
Yes — virtual opens use the $4.26 modeled cost ($1.77 + $2.49) without charging your Steam wallet.
Detail EV is $2.59 (-$1.67 vs $4.26 open). Individual sims often land below that because commons dominate 8.85% profit chance.
It uses CSProfit's 29-item probability table for Shadow Case (updated June 3, 2026). It models randomness but is not Valve's server-side roll.
Modeled exp. profit is -$1.67 on $4.26 opens with -39.30% Unbox ROI. Most single opens still return items worth less than cost.
Click Open Once ($4.26 modeled) or Quick Sim for bulk runs. Compare history to $2.59 EV and 8.85% win benchmark.
You can hit ★ Shadow Daggers | Night ($381.39 avg.) in sim, but 0.02% rare drops remain unlikely. Session wins ≠ -39.30% long-run ROI.
Run 50+ Quick Sims, chart rarity distribution and compare win rate to 8.85% and EV to $2.59 — one lucky streak is noise.
The web tool is free. Real Shadow Case opens still cost $4.26 (USD) on Steam if you choose to open for real.